# GET /v2/fixtures/{id}/win-probability/source

Group: Fixtures

The data source’s own in-game win probability — not our model: home and away per game minute. American football (NFL) only, the one sport the source publishes one for. Pro and Business plans.

Plans: Pro + Business only (other plans get 403 endpoint_not_in_plan).

Note: model is always "source" — the estimate the data source publishes with its match data, whose method we do not know; our own model is /v2/fixtures/{id}/win-probability (football, model v1–v3). An analysis indicator, not betting advice. minute is playing time (an NFL quarter is 15; overtime continues the count), about one point a minute — a minute can be missing and the curve can start at 1; the last point is the source’s last estimate, not forced to 1 / 0 at the final whistle. home + away = 1 (no tie modelled). Other sports, and a game the source has none for: 200 with an empty series and null period figures. REST only — no WebSocket frame carries it; poll it about every 30 seconds while the game is in play.

## Parameters

| Name | In | Required | Description |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| `id` | path | yes | our numeric id (positive integer) |

## Response

- `data`: `SourceWinProbability`
- `meta`: count (points in series)
- Objects: SourceWinProbability (https://sportsapi.app/markdown/en/reference.md#sourcewinprobability)

## Errors

- 403 endpoint_not_in_plan — Free and Starter keys
- 403 history_not_in_plan — the fixture is older than your plan’s history
- 404 not_found — an id we never issued

Plus the common errors (https://sportsapi.app/markdown/en/docs.md#errors).

## Request

cURL:

```bash
curl -H "Authorization: Bearer sk_live_…" \
    "https://api.sportsapi.app/v2/fixtures/{id}/win-probability/source"
```

TypeScript:

```ts
const { data, meta } = await client.fixtures.sourceWinProbability(id);
```

Python:

```python
res = client.fixtures.source_win_probability(id)
```

Go:

```go
res, err := client.Fixtures.SourceWinProbability(ctx, id)
```

CLI:

```bash
$ sportsapi fixtures source-win-probability <id>
```

## Example response

```json
{ "data": { "fixtureId": 218455, "model": "source", "periodLengthMinutes": 15, "periodCount": 4, "overtimeLengthMinutes": 10,
    "series": [ { "minute": 1, "home": 0.63, "away": 0.37 }, { "minute": 2, "home": 0.65, "away": 0.35 }, …,
      { "minute": 48, "home": 0.99, "away": 0.01 } ] },
  "meta": { "count": 48 } }
```

---

Base URL: https://api.sportsapi.app. Send your API key as `Authorization: Bearer <key>` on every /v2 request; keys are created in the dashboard (https://sportsapi.app/dashboard).
HTML: https://sportsapi.app/docs/fixtures/source-win-probability · All docs: https://sportsapi.app/markdown/en/docs.md