Galatasaray vs VfB Stuttgart — live win probability and AI commentary

UEFA Champions League · Round 4 · Rams Park Stadyumu, Istanbul2nd half
GalatasarayBatrakov 12′ 15′
2–0
VfB Stuttgart
Before kick-off our model hadGAL 29%Draw 21%VFB 50%

How the match swung

After every minute and every goal

Model v3
0′ · 17:47 UTC — Galatasaray 29%, draw 21%, Stuttgart 50%1′ · 17:48 UTC — Galatasaray 28%, draw 21%, Stuttgart 51%2′ · 17:49 UTC — Galatasaray 29%, draw 21%, Stuttgart 50%3′ · 17:50 UTC — Galatasaray 29%, draw 21%, Stuttgart 50%4′ · 17:51 UTC — Galatasaray 30%, draw 21%, Stuttgart 49%5′ · 17:52 UTC — Galatasaray 31%, draw 21%, Stuttgart 48%6′ · 17:53 UTC — Galatasaray 31%, draw 22%, Stuttgart 47%7′ · 17:54 UTC — Galatasaray 31%, draw 22%, Stuttgart 47%8′ · 17:54 UTC — Galatasaray 31%, draw 22%, Stuttgart 47%8′ · 17:55 UTC — Galatasaray 31%, draw 22%, Stuttgart 47%9′ · 17:56 UTC — Galatasaray 30%, draw 22%, Stuttgart 48%10′ · 17:57 UTC — Galatasaray 30%, draw 22%, Stuttgart 48%11′ · 17:58 UTC — Galatasaray 30%, draw 22%, Stuttgart 48%12′ · 17:58 UTC — Galatasaray 50%, draw 22%, Stuttgart 28%12′ · 17:59 UTC — Galatasaray 51%, draw 22%, Stuttgart 27%13′ · 18:00 UTC — Galatasaray 51%, draw 22%, Stuttgart 27%14′ · 18:01 UTC — Galatasaray 50%, draw 22%, Stuttgart 28%15′ · 18:01 UTC — Galatasaray 70%, draw 16%, Stuttgart 14%15′ · 18:02 UTC — Galatasaray 70%, draw 16%, Stuttgart 14%16′ · 18:03 UTC — Galatasaray 70%, draw 16%, Stuttgart 14%17′ · 18:04 UTC — Galatasaray 70%, draw 16%, Stuttgart 14%18′ · 18:05 UTC — Galatasaray 70%, draw 16%, Stuttgart 14%19′ · 18:06 UTC — Galatasaray 72%, draw 15%, Stuttgart 13%20′ · 18:07 UTC — Galatasaray 72%, draw 16%, Stuttgart 12%21′ · 18:08 UTC — Galatasaray 73%, draw 15%, Stuttgart 12%22′ · 18:09 UTC — Galatasaray 72%, draw 16%, Stuttgart 12%23′ · 18:10 UTC — Galatasaray 72%, draw 16%, Stuttgart 12%24′ · 18:11 UTC — Galatasaray 73%, draw 15%, Stuttgart 12%25′ · 18:12 UTC — Galatasaray 74%, draw 15%, Stuttgart 11%26′ · 18:13 UTC — Galatasaray 74%, draw 15%, Stuttgart 11%27′ · 18:14 UTC — Galatasaray 75%, draw 15%, Stuttgart 10%28′ · 18:15 UTC — Galatasaray 75%, draw 15%, Stuttgart 10%29′ · 18:16 UTC — Galatasaray 75%, draw 15%, Stuttgart 10%30′ · 18:17 UTC — Galatasaray 75%, draw 15%, Stuttgart 10%31′ · 18:18 UTC — Galatasaray 76%, draw 14%, Stuttgart 10%32′ · 18:19 UTC — Galatasaray 77%, draw 14%, Stuttgart 9%33′ · 18:20 UTC — Galatasaray 78%, draw 14%, Stuttgart 8%34′ · 18:21 UTC — Galatasaray 78%, draw 14%, Stuttgart 8%35′ · 18:22 UTC — Galatasaray 78%, draw 14%, Stuttgart 8%36′ · 18:23 UTC — Galatasaray 79%, draw 13%, Stuttgart 8%37′ · 18:24 UTC — Galatasaray 78%, draw 14%, Stuttgart 8%38′ · 18:25 UTC — Galatasaray 78%, draw 14%, Stuttgart 8%39′ · 18:26 UTC — Galatasaray 78%, draw 14%, Stuttgart 8%40′ · 18:27 UTC — Galatasaray 78%, draw 14%, Stuttgart 8%41′ · 18:28 UTC — Galatasaray 78%, draw 14%, Stuttgart 8%42′ · 18:29 UTC — Galatasaray 78%, draw 14%, Stuttgart 8%43′ · 18:30 UTC — Galatasaray 76%, draw 15%, Stuttgart 9%44′ · 18:31 UTC — Galatasaray 76%, draw 15%, Stuttgart 9%45′ · 18:32 UTC — Galatasaray 76%, draw 15%, Stuttgart 9%45+1′ · 18:33 UTC — Galatasaray 76%, draw 15%, Stuttgart 9%45+2′ · 18:34 UTC — Galatasaray 76%, draw 15%, Stuttgart 9%45+3′ · 18:35 UTC — Galatasaray 77%, draw 15%, Stuttgart 8%45+3′ · 18:35 UTC — Galatasaray 77%, draw 15%, Stuttgart 8%46′ · 18:51 UTC — Galatasaray 77%, draw 15%, Stuttgart 8%46′ · 18:52 UTC — Galatasaray 77%, draw 15%, Stuttgart 8%47′ · 18:53 UTC — Galatasaray 78%, draw 14%, Stuttgart 8%48′ · 18:54 UTC — Galatasaray 79%, draw 14%, Stuttgart 7%49′ · 18:55 UTC — Galatasaray 79%, draw 14%, Stuttgart 7%50′ · 18:56 UTC — Galatasaray 80%, draw 13%, Stuttgart 7%51′ · 18:57 UTC — Galatasaray 80%, draw 13%, Stuttgart 7%52′ · 18:58 UTC — Galatasaray 81%, draw 13%, Stuttgart 6%53′ · 18:59 UTC — Galatasaray 83%, draw 12%, Stuttgart 5%54′ · 19:00 UTC — Galatasaray 83%, draw 12%, Stuttgart 5%55′ · 19:01 UTC — Galatasaray 83%, draw 12%, Stuttgart 5%56′ · 19:02 UTC — Galatasaray 84%, draw 11%, Stuttgart 5%57′ · 19:03 UTC — Galatasaray 85%, draw 11%, Stuttgart 4%58′ · 19:04 UTC — Galatasaray 86%, draw 10%, Stuttgart 4%59′ · 19:05 UTC — Galatasaray 86%, draw 10%, Stuttgart 4%60′ · 19:06 UTC — Galatasaray 86%, draw 10%, Stuttgart 4%61′ · 19:07 UTC — Galatasaray 86%, draw 10%, Stuttgart 4%62′ · 19:08 UTC — Galatasaray 87%, draw 10%, Stuttgart 3%63′ · 19:09 UTC — Galatasaray 86%, draw 10%, Stuttgart 4%64′ · 19:10 UTC — Galatasaray 86%, draw 10%, Stuttgart 4%65′ · 19:11 UTC — Galatasaray 86%, draw 11%, Stuttgart 3%66′ · 19:12 UTC — Galatasaray 84%, draw 12%, Stuttgart 4%67′ · 19:13 UTC — Galatasaray 83%, draw 12%, Stuttgart 5%68′ · 19:14 UTC — Galatasaray 82%, draw 13%, Stuttgart 5%69′ · 19:15 UTC — Galatasaray 82%, draw 13%, Stuttgart 5%70′ · 19:16 UTC — Galatasaray 83%, draw 13%, Stuttgart 4%71′ · 19:17 UTC — Galatasaray 84%, draw 12%, Stuttgart 4%72′ · 19:18 UTC — Galatasaray 84%, draw 12%, Stuttgart 4%73′ · 19:19 UTC — Galatasaray 87%, draw 10%, Stuttgart 3%74′ · 19:20 UTC — Galatasaray 88%, draw 9%, Stuttgart 3%
  1. 12′ · Goal 1–0Galatasaray 30% → 50%
  2. 15′ · Goal 2–0Galatasaray 50% → 70%

An analysis indicator from our own statistical model — not betting advice. No bookmaker odds are used.

Match story

AI commentary from our match data · newest first

Live
  1. 46′Restart

    The second half is under way at Rams Park Stadyumu, with Galatasaray leading VfB Stuttgart 2–0 thanks to Aleksey Batrakov's goals on 12 and 15 minutes. Our model still gives Galatasaray a 77% win probability.

    GAL 77%
  2. 45′Half-time

    Galatasaray lead VfB Stuttgart 2-0 at the break, with Aleksey Batrakov scoring in the 12th and 15th minutes. The hosts have had 59% of possession and put three shots on target to Stuttgart's none, though the expected goals are close at 0.76 to 0.70. Our model now gives Galatasaray a 77% win probability, up from 29% before kick-off.

    GAL 76%
  3. 33′Big chance

    Victor Osimhen has a big chance to make it three for Galatasaray, but his effort goes off target, an expected goals value of 0.32 wasted. Our model barely moves, still giving Galatasaray a 78% win probability.

    GAL 78%
  4. 20′Big chance

    Big chance for VfB Stuttgart, but Jamie Leweling sends his effort off target, a 0.33 expected-goals opportunity gone. Galatasaray still lead 2-0 thanks to Aleksey Batrakov's early brace, and our model gives them a 73% win probability.

    GAL 72%
  5. 15′Goal

    Aleksey Batrakov strikes again, his second in three minutes, and Galatasaray lead 2-0 at Rams Park. Our model now makes Galatasaray 70% to win, up from 50%, even though VfB Stuttgart lead the shot map 0.46 xG to 0.26.

    GAL 50% → 70%
  6. 12′Goal

    Aleksey Batrakov puts Galatasaray 1–0 up at Rams Park, and it comes against the run of the shot map, where Stuttgart hold the 0.44 to 0.00 expected-goals edge. Our model moves Galatasaray's win probability from 30% to 50%.

    GAL 30% → 51%
  7. 8′Big chance

    Jamie Leweling hits the woodwork for VfB Stuttgart with a big chance worth 0.51 expected goals, and the visitors are inches away from the opener. Galatasaray have yet to register a shot of note, with an expected goals total of 0.00.

    VFB 47%
  8. 0′Kick-off

    Galatasaray get the Champions League round 4 tie against VfB Stuttgart underway at Rams Park Stadyumu in Istanbul. Our model gives Stuttgart a 50% win probability, with Galatasaray at 29% and a draw at 21%.

    GAL 29% · Draw 21% · VFB 50%