Shakhtar Donetsk vs Sporting CP — live win probability and AI commentary

UEFA Champions League · Round 4 · Stamford Bridge, London2nd half
Shakhtar Donetsk
0–1
Sporting CPDoumbia 59′
Before kick-off our model hadSHA 31%Draw 25%SCP 44%

How the match swung

After every minute and every goal

Model v3
0′ · 17:46 UTC — Shakhtar 31%, draw 25%, Sporting 44%1′ · 17:47 UTC — Shakhtar 31%, draw 25%, Sporting 44%2′ · 17:48 UTC — Shakhtar 32%, draw 26%, Sporting 42%3′ · 17:49 UTC — Shakhtar 32%, draw 26%, Sporting 42%4′ · 17:50 UTC — Shakhtar 33%, draw 26%, Sporting 41%5′ · 17:51 UTC — Shakhtar 33%, draw 26%, Sporting 41%6′ · 17:52 UTC — Shakhtar 33%, draw 26%, Sporting 41%7′ · 17:53 UTC — Shakhtar 33%, draw 27%, Sporting 40%8′ · 17:54 UTC — Shakhtar 33%, draw 27%, Sporting 40%9′ · 17:55 UTC — Shakhtar 33%, draw 27%, Sporting 40%10′ · 17:56 UTC — Shakhtar 32%, draw 27%, Sporting 41%11′ · 17:57 UTC — Shakhtar 32%, draw 27%, Sporting 41%12′ · 17:58 UTC — Shakhtar 32%, draw 27%, Sporting 41%13′ · 17:59 UTC — Shakhtar 31%, draw 28%, Sporting 41%14′ · 18:00 UTC — Shakhtar 30%, draw 28%, Sporting 42%15′ · 18:01 UTC — Shakhtar 30%, draw 28%, Sporting 42%16′ · 18:02 UTC — Shakhtar 30%, draw 28%, Sporting 42%17′ · 18:03 UTC — Shakhtar 29%, draw 28%, Sporting 43%18′ · 18:04 UTC — Shakhtar 29%, draw 28%, Sporting 43%19′ · 18:05 UTC — Shakhtar 29%, draw 28%, Sporting 43%20′ · 18:06 UTC — Shakhtar 29%, draw 29%, Sporting 42%21′ · 18:07 UTC — Shakhtar 29%, draw 29%, Sporting 42%22′ · 18:08 UTC — Shakhtar 29%, draw 29%, Sporting 42%23′ · 18:09 UTC — Shakhtar 31%, draw 29%, Sporting 40%24′ · 18:10 UTC — Shakhtar 31%, draw 30%, Sporting 39%25′ · 18:11 UTC — Shakhtar 32%, draw 30%, Sporting 38%26′ · 18:12 UTC — Shakhtar 32%, draw 30%, Sporting 38%27′ · 18:13 UTC — Shakhtar 33%, draw 30%, Sporting 37%28′ · 18:14 UTC — Shakhtar 32%, draw 31%, Sporting 37%29′ · 18:15 UTC — Shakhtar 32%, draw 31%, Sporting 37%30′ · 18:16 UTC — Shakhtar 32%, draw 31%, Sporting 37%31′ · 18:17 UTC — Shakhtar 31%, draw 31%, Sporting 38%32′ · 18:18 UTC — Shakhtar 32%, draw 31%, Sporting 37%33′ · 18:19 UTC — Shakhtar 31%, draw 32%, Sporting 37%34′ · 18:20 UTC — Shakhtar 30%, draw 32%, Sporting 38%35′ · 18:21 UTC — Shakhtar 29%, draw 32%, Sporting 39%36′ · 18:22 UTC — Shakhtar 28%, draw 32%, Sporting 40%37′ · 18:23 UTC — Shakhtar 27%, draw 32%, Sporting 41%38′ · 18:24 UTC — Shakhtar 27%, draw 32%, Sporting 41%39′ · 18:25 UTC — Shakhtar 27%, draw 33%, Sporting 40%40′ · 18:26 UTC — Shakhtar 28%, draw 33%, Sporting 39%41′ · 18:27 UTC — Shakhtar 28%, draw 33%, Sporting 39%42′ · 18:28 UTC — Shakhtar 28%, draw 34%, Sporting 38%43′ · 18:29 UTC — Shakhtar 29%, draw 34%, Sporting 37%44′ · 18:30 UTC — Shakhtar 29%, draw 35%, Sporting 36%45′ · 18:31 UTC — Shakhtar 30%, draw 35%, Sporting 35%45+1′ · 18:32 UTC — Shakhtar 30%, draw 35%, Sporting 35%45+2′ · 18:33 UTC — Shakhtar 29%, draw 36%, Sporting 35%45+3′ · 18:34 UTC — Shakhtar 29%, draw 36%, Sporting 35%45+3′ · 18:34 UTC — Shakhtar 29%, draw 36%, Sporting 35%46′ · 18:47 UTC — Shakhtar 29%, draw 36%, Sporting 35%46′ · 18:48 UTC — Shakhtar 30%, draw 36%, Sporting 34%47′ · 18:49 UTC — Shakhtar 29%, draw 37%, Sporting 34%48′ · 18:50 UTC — Shakhtar 30%, draw 37%, Sporting 33%49′ · 18:51 UTC — Shakhtar 28%, draw 38%, Sporting 34%50′ · 18:52 UTC — Shakhtar 28%, draw 38%, Sporting 34%51′ · 18:53 UTC — Shakhtar 28%, draw 38%, Sporting 34%52′ · 18:54 UTC — Shakhtar 27%, draw 39%, Sporting 34%53′ · 18:55 UTC — Shakhtar 26%, draw 39%, Sporting 35%54′ · 18:56 UTC — Shakhtar 26%, draw 39%, Sporting 35%54′ · 18:56 UTC — Shakhtar 26%, draw 40%, Sporting 34%55′ · 18:57 UTC — Shakhtar 26%, draw 40%, Sporting 34%56′ · 18:58 UTC — Shakhtar 26%, draw 41%, Sporting 33%57′ · 18:59 UTC — Shakhtar 27%, draw 41%, Sporting 32%58′ · 19:00 UTC — Shakhtar 27%, draw 42%, Sporting 31%59′ · 19:01 UTC — Shakhtar 7%, draw 21%, Sporting 72%59′ · 19:01 UTC — Shakhtar 7%, draw 21%, Sporting 72%60′ · 19:02 UTC — Shakhtar 6%, draw 21%, Sporting 73%61′ · 19:03 UTC — Shakhtar 6%, draw 21%, Sporting 73%62′ · 19:04 UTC — Shakhtar 6%, draw 20%, Sporting 74%62′ · 19:04 UTC — Shakhtar 6%, draw 20%, Sporting 74%63′ · 19:05 UTC — Shakhtar 5%, draw 20%, Sporting 75%64′ · 19:06 UTC — Shakhtar 5%, draw 18%, Sporting 77%65′ · 19:07 UTC — Shakhtar 4%, draw 18%, Sporting 78%66′ · 19:08 UTC — Shakhtar 4%, draw 17%, Sporting 79%67′ · 19:09 UTC — Shakhtar 4%, draw 17%, Sporting 79%68′ · 19:10 UTC — Shakhtar 3%, draw 17%, Sporting 80%69′ · 19:11 UTC — Shakhtar 4%, draw 17%, Sporting 79%70′ · 19:12 UTC — Shakhtar 3%, draw 17%, Sporting 80%71′ · 19:13 UTC — Shakhtar 3%, draw 17%, Sporting 80%72′ · 19:14 UTC — Shakhtar 3%, draw 17%, Sporting 80%72′ · 19:14 UTC — Shakhtar 3%, draw 17%, Sporting 80%73′ · 19:15 UTC — Shakhtar 4%, draw 18%, Sporting 78%74′ · 19:16 UTC — Shakhtar 4%, draw 19%, Sporting 77%75′ · 19:17 UTC — Shakhtar 4%, draw 20%, Sporting 76%76′ · 19:18 UTC — Shakhtar 4%, draw 19%, Sporting 77%77′ · 19:19 UTC — Shakhtar 4%, draw 19%, Sporting 77%78′ · 19:20 UTC — Shakhtar 3%, draw 19%, Sporting 78%79′ · 19:21 UTC — Shakhtar 3%, draw 19%, Sporting 78%80′ · 19:22 UTC — Shakhtar 3%, draw 19%, Sporting 78%81′ · 19:23 UTC — Shakhtar 3%, draw 19%, Sporting 78%82′ · 19:24 UTC — Shakhtar 3%, draw 18%, Sporting 79%
  1. 59′ · Goal 0–1Sporting 31% → 72%

An analysis indicator from our own statistical model — not betting advice. No bookmaker odds are used.

Match story

AI commentary from our match data · newest first

Live
  1. 72′Big chance

    Kauã Elias gets a big chance for Shakhtar Donetsk but sends it off target, a 0.52 expected-goals opportunity gone. Sporting CP still lead 1-0, and our model gives them a 79% win probability.

    SCP 80%
  2. 72′Big chance

    Marlon Gomes gets a big chance for Shakhtar Donetsk but puts it off target, a miss worth 0.59 expected goals. Sporting CP still lead 1-0, and our model gives them an 81% win probability.

    SCP 80%
  3. 62′Big chance

    Luis Javier Suárez gets a big chance to double Sporting CP's lead but sends his effort off target, a miss worth 0.53 expected goals. Our model still makes Sporting CP 79% to win, up from 73%.

    SCP 74%
  4. 59′Goal

    Issa Doumbia puts Sporting CP ahead, and it is 0-1 against Shakhtar Donetsk despite their 1.13 to 0.29 edge in expected goals. Our model now makes Sporting CP 72% to win, up from 31%.

    SCP 31% → 72%
  5. 46′Restart

    The second half is under way at Stamford Bridge, with Shakhtar Donetsk and Sporting CP still goalless. Shakhtar lead the shot-map expected goals 0.44 to 0.23, though our model still has Sporting CP marginally ahead on win probability at 35%.

    Draw 36%
  6. 45′Half-time

    Shakhtar Donetsk and Sporting CP go into the break goalless at Stamford Bridge. The hosts edge the expected goals, 0.44 to 0.23, helped by one big chance and four corners to one. Our model now makes the draw the most likely result at 36%, up from 25% before kickoff.

    SCP 35%
  7. 42′Big chance

    Big chance for Shakhtar Donetsk as Kauã Elias fires off target from a good position, worth 0.44 expected goals on its own. It remains 0-0, and Shakhtar's expected goals total moves to 0.59 against 0.23 for Sporting CP.

    SCP 38%
  8. 0′Kick-off

    Shakhtar Donetsk get the Champions League round 4 match against Sporting CP under way at Stamford Bridge, London, with the score 0–0. Our model gives Sporting CP a 44% win probability, Shakhtar Donetsk 31%.

    SHA 31% · Draw 25% · SCP 44%